This week is the first week of paper trading my new four hour strategy. My hourly trading was fun but mundane facts of life such as rent mean I’m 9 to 5’ing for a fair bit of the summer and work are oddly unappreciative of me chart watching on their time. The four hour bars means I can check for likely setups each night and monitor them before I start work, in my lunch break and when I get back from work. Wish me luck! Readon on to find out what I'll be watching.

An introduction to why I think most modern forms of prediction are a lot less useful and reliable than we think they are. Scott disagrees strongly so expect a response shortly.

For those of you who have noticed it has been a bit quiet here on Money? What Money? over the past couple of months, fear not. The recent market turmoil hasn't caused us to lose all faith in the markets and become insurance salesman, our absence has been down to the something far more mundane; exams.

We've all had our noses hard to the grindstone as we attempt to compensate for the time spent researching stocks (and in my case staring at fx charts) which in retrospect should have been spent studying law, engineering or journalism.

We all finish our exams in the next couple of weeks and rest assured we will be back with a vengence; taking on the might of the FTSE, the guile of the AIM and the utter chaos that is Foreign Exchange.

Ben. 

Update: 14th May 2008

As I Write this QTI is trading at 1.27 pence per share. Those of you who are mathematically inclined will notice this is significantly below what we paid for them. A disaster you ask? I would say not. Whilst the price has gone down, the reasons we purchased the share all hold good. The decline seems to correlate heavily with the release of a further £1 million of shares to institutional investments. Whilst this shows QTI is short of money, we already knew this and the fact the institutional investors were prepared to buy them at all shows they have some belief QTI may succeed. 

If the above mentioned deal with Halma materialises then the price is likely to increase dramatically. In my opinion declines are probabely due to people who bought the stock with the expectation that it would continue to go up as it did in late 2007 and are now getting out because this hasn't happened. This was not why we bought the share and so we have no reason to get out.

On this basis, subject to some analysis of Halmas finances given the current market conditions, I will, at the next MYM meeting, be proposing that QTI is currently looking attractively cheap and we should increase our holding of it by approximately 2/3's.