This week is the first week of paper
trading my new four hour strategy. My hourly trading was fun but mundane facts
of life such as rent mean I’m 9 to 5’ing for a fair bit of the summer and work
are oddly unappreciative of me chart watching on their time. The four hour bars
means I can check for likely setups each night and monitor them before I start
work, in my lunch break and when I get back from work. Wish me luck! Readon on to find out what I'll be watching.
EURGBP
The yellow lines are a Fibonacci retracement from swing low to swing high, the red line is a medium strength pivot zone which has been in play since early February. The confluence between the 61.8 fib and this resistance zone means I’ll be watching this one closely, I’m not watching for anything in particular yet, more just trying to get a feel how the price looks at these important levels on the four hourly timeframe.
GBPUSD
Nothing jumps out at me here, definitely nothing that I’d trade, but I’ll be paying a lot of attention to how this responds to the 38.2 and greater fibs, the move so far has responded to Fibs quite repeatable. Whilst I don’t think I’d ever enter a trade solely based on fibs, they do seem to be very useful as indicators so some time spent watching how the price responds to them can’t be time wasted!
USDCAD
The price has been bouncing off this resistance level since early January, a signal that the price is rejecting it might be enough for a short, depending on its strength. If the price does make it through I’ll be watching for the resistance level to become support, forming a pivot zone.
USDCHF
The above chart shows a broad and somewhat weak pivot zone on the H4 timeframe and a fib from the most recent swing high to the swing low.
There’s no real confluence between the pivot zone and the fibs but I’ll still be keeping an eye on how the price responds to these levels, if just so I’ve got a reference point for working out what’s different in the behaviour of the price in situations when there is and is not confluence.
USDJPY
This one’s just something I’m tinkering with, at the moment it’s more of a vague notion that short term support and resistance levels tend to be slanted or zigzagged, almost like trend lines but not quite. Something along the lines of the interplay between the fact traders are accepting the existence of these support and resistance levels and the fact that by doing so and trying to profit from them in different ways they are altering their characteristics.
AUDUSD
Here I’ll be watching the price as it reaches the pivot zone shown by the horizontal red line, I’ll be paying particularly close attention around the intersection of the ascending trend line and this pivot zone.
That’s pretty much what I’ll be doing this week; I’ll update this page when and if I think of anything else. Saving that I’ll put another post up if I make any paper trades and some more commentary up this weekend when we’ll see if anything I expected to happen happened.
This weeks doghouse goes go Scott. Not only did he get a stock tip out of the metro, in a written report he then handed out he admitted he couldn't find a particular figure but i quote "It was a big number, tis somewhere in last Mondays metro". Pathetic.
That said, in all fairness, the stock (Majestic Wine, MJW) is now on our probable buy list, he still gets the doghouse for admitting his source.
FX and Trading 
