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So having been told by various people to "just get on with it" trading wise, it looks like as of this week I will be. Albeit whilst severely undercapitliased and short of time, but hey beggers can't be choosers and all that. Read on to see what I'll be looking at in the upcoming week and keep checking back to see how it all goes wrong....
Firstly and probably underlying all of my decision this week is that I don't have much faith in this so called financial crisis. Of course things have been going badly wrong in the financial sector and the everyman won't be unaffected by it, as is showing by the surge in home repossessions this quarter. On the other hand everything has just happened a bit too slowly for it to really count as a crisis, in my view an essential element of a crisis is that people don't see it coming, they don't have time to plan for it.
People have been discussing the possibility of a crisis/ crash/ recession for months, in my view by discussing it and predicting it they've limited the extent to which it can happen, they've planned for it and priced the possibility into their decisions. The current slides in stock prices are just people who are afraid to be seen to be doing something different to the rest of the market are all selling on so called bad news. In fact that bad news they are selling on is that others think there is bad news and so-on, ad infinum.
Will I be putting my money where my mouth is? Probably, I think at the moment I prefer individual companies to indices. Mainly indidivudal companies which I've been following recently, Autonomy I'll be wathching very carefully, they slid to the low 700's at the lower points of last week despite excellant Q3 results and the constant stream of new contracts this year showing strong organic growth.
Another possibility are the companies likely to be affected by the current perception that the everyman needs to save money. So possible long positions in the likes of Tesco and Asda and short positioins in Starbucks, Marks and Spencer etc.
Alongside all of that I'll still be looking at chart patterns but only on a short term basis, there's too much news for long term technical positions. Mainly looking for double bar highs and low's with stops at the point of the double bar and a risk to reward ration of 1:2 after opening at the other end of the final bar.
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