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So as you may have guessed from the title, despite featuring in "Bens FX Blog," this post has very little to do with FX, mainly because I haven't done enough FX related things to warrant an entire post this week.Some would say I should change the name of the blog to something more generic, those people are wrong. If your still going after that (somewhat confrontational) introduction then read on for a collection of vaguely connected thoughts in a somewhat milder tone.
First, to keep things at least a little bit on track, why haven't I made any trades of interest this week? In my previous post I mentioned 6800 as a possible resistance level for the December Daily Brent Crude contract, that's proved pretty accurate so far with a fairly clear rejection around 19:00 on November 4th. Now the level has been properly tested I'll be keeping an eye on it to get there again. That said I'm nervous about oil at the moment, lots of people, in particular Scott have shown me excellant reasons why it could and may well continue going down but I'm not convinced for several reasons.
Firstly a very basic (and potentially wrong, if you know why please let me know) argument based on supply and demand. We know oil is running out, or at least that it will in the forseeable future reach the point where it is no longer economical to get to it. That tells me that the oil market cannot function like competitions laws hypothetical widget market (ok it doesn't anyway because of OPEC but forget that for now) where suppliers will step in to meet demand. On that basis the only variable which we can be sure of is supply, more specifically that it will fall.
The counter argument is that although in the long term supply must fall and therefore price increase, in the short term due to current economic conditions (the credit crunch), people will have less money to spend on petrol, flights and the like and so there will be a drop in demand and therefore price. The problem is I'm generally unconvinced that the current crisis will be as drawn out as people say and that OPEC, who openly manipulate supply to compensate for drops in demands won't continue to take action to keep the price up.
Autonomy
Autonomy behaved as expected, managing to push just through the £10 barrier before falling back down to around the £9.66 mark. Unfortunetely at the time I had no free margin to take the short and one of my few rules I stick to religiously is not adding funding to my account on the spur of the moment, mainly because all of my acceptable risk levels are based on account balance and I have no wish to distort them.
Assuming I've managed to free up some margin I'll still consider increasing my long position around the £9.00 mark if the price reacts consistently with previous approaches.
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FX and Trading 
